World Football Elo Ratings | Wikipedia audio article

World Football Elo Ratings | Wikipedia audio article


The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking
system for men’s national association football teams that is published by the website eloratings.net.
It is based on the Elo rating system but includes modifications to take various football-specific
variables into account, like the margin of victory, importance of a match, and home field
advantage. Other implementations of the Elo rating system are possible and there is no
single nor any official Elo ranking for football teams.
Since being developed, the Elo rankings have been found to have the highest predictive
capability for football matches. FIFA’s official rankings, both the FIFA World Rankings for
men and the FIFA Women’s World Rankings are based on a modified version of the Elo formula,
the men’s rankings having switched away from FIFA’s own system for matches played since
June 2018.==Top 100==
The following table shows the top 100 teams in the World Football Elo Ratings as they
were on 9 May 2019, using data from the World Football Elo Ratings web site.Each national
team’s FIFA World Ranking is shown as per the latest release on 4 April 2019.==List of number-one teams==
The following is the list of nations who have achieved the number-one position in the World
Football Elo Ratings since the first international match in 1872:===Ranking by matches played as leader=====All-time team highs and lows==
The following is a list of national football teams ranked by the highest Elo rating they
ever reached. The table also includes the highest ranking as well as the lowest rating
and ranking reached by each nation. The team that has achieved the highest rank in each
confederation is shown in color.==Average ratings==
Time averaged Elo or Elo-like scores are routinely used to compare chess player strengths.====Highest average ratings since 1970====
This table is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score since 1
January 1970, or over approximately the last half century. Before this time intercontinental
play was fairly limited and many nations in Africa, North America, and Asia had played
too few games yet to create a representative Elo score. Only those teams are displayed
that started playing before 1970 and played the entire period without a 5 year or longer
interruption. Some excluded strong national football teams, like East-Germany and Croatia,
appear in the decades tables below.====Averages by decade====
The tables below shows the teams with the best average Elo score per decade (Jan 1 XXX0
– Dec 31 XXX9). Only those teams are displayed that had played before the start of the decade
and played at least ten games in the decade.==Highest rated matches==
A list of the 25 matches between teams with the highest combined Elo ratings (the nations’
points before the matches are given).==Biggest upsets==
This is a list of matches with the biggest point exchange. Since the importance of the
match, the goal differential and the perceived home team advantage are factored in the exchange,
these are not necessarily the most surprising wins as expressed by the difference in Elo
rating.The nations’ points before the matches are given. *The initial ratings may be partially responsible
for the high point exchange. The national teams of China, Egypt, Russia, and South Korea
had played only 18, 3, 2, and 18 international matches before their respective upsets. China
had only yet played against East Asian teams.==Elo Ratings before each World Championship
====History and overview==
The Elo system, developed by Hungarian-American mathematician Árpád Élő, is used by FIDE,
the international chess federation, to rate chess players, and by the European Go Federation,
to rate Go players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football
and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World
Football Elo Ratings web site, currently maintained by Kirill Bulygin. Other implementations of
the Elo rating system are possible but the Runyan system is the best known.
The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match,
an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the
match result. The factors taken into consideration when
calculating a team’s new rating are: The team’s old rating
The considered weight of the tournament The goal difference of the match
The result of the match The expected result of the matchThe different
weights of competitions in descending order are: World Cup Finals
Continental championships finals and Intercontinental tournaments
World Cup and Continental championship qualifiers All other tournaments
Friendly matchesThe ratings consider all official international matches for which results are
available. Ratings tend to converge on a team’s true strength relative to its competitors
after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered
provisional.===Comparison with other systems===
A 2009 comparative study of eight methods found that the implementation of the Elo rating
system described below had the highest predictive capability for football matches, while the
men’s FIFA ranking method (2006–2018 system) performed poorly.The FIFA World Rankings is
the official national teams rating system used by the international governing body of
football. The FIFA Women’s World Rankings system has used a modified version of the
Elo formula since 2003. In June 2018, the FIFA ranking switched to an Elo-based ranking
as well, starting from the current FIFA rating points. The major difference between the World
Football Elo Rating and the new men’s FIFA rating system is that the latter does not
consider goal differential and counts a penalty shoot-out as a win/loss rather than a draw;
thus, a 7:0 blowout is considered equal to a 7:6 penalty shoot-out win (neither method
distinguishes a win in extra time from a win in regular time). The FIFA method is also
less sensitive to the difference in ratings and more sensitive to match status. Finally,
World Football Elo Ratings considers all official international matches for which results are
available, including those involving “unaffiliated” teams that are not a member of FIFA.==Calculation principles==
The ratings are based on the following formulae: R n=R o +
P {\displaystyle R_{n}=R_{o}+P}
where P
=K
G (
W − W e ) {\displaystyle P=KG(W-W_{e})}
Where; “Points Change” is rounded to the nearest
integer before updating the team rating.===Status of match===
The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The constant
reflects the importance of a match, which, in turn, is determined entirely by which tournament
the match is in; the weight constant for each major tournament is: The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating will
feature 8 weights, with the knockout stages in the World Cup weighing 12x more than some
friendly matches.===Number of goals===
The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index.
If the game is a draw or is won by one goal G
=1 {\displaystyle G=1}
If the game is won by two goals G
=3
2 {\displaystyle G={\frac {3}{2}}}
If the game is won by three or more goals Where N is the goal difference G
=11
+ N 8 {\displaystyle G={\frac {11+N}{8}}}
Table of examples:===Result of match===
W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). This also
holds when a game is won or lost on extra time. If the match is decided on penalties,
however, the result of the game is considered a draw (W=0.5).===Expected result of match===
We is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following
formula: W e=1 10 −
d r / 400 +
1 {\displaystyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{-dr/400}+1}}}
where dr equals the difference in ratings (add 100 points for the home team). So dr
of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower,
and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.
The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating does not incorporate a home team advantage and
has a larger divisor in the formula (600 vs 400), making the points exchange less sensitive
to the rating difference of two teams.===Examples for clarification===
The same example of a three-team friendly tournament on neutral territory is used as
on the FIFA World Rankings page. Beforehand team A had a rating of 630 points, team B
500 points, and teams C 480 points.The first table shows the points allocations based on
three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker
team B: When the difference in strength between the
two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The next table illustrates
how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly
equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved: Team B drops more points by losing to Team
C, which has shown about the same strength, than by losing to Team A, which has been considerably
better than Team B.==See also==
Statistical association football predictions==Notes

About the Author: Garret Beatty

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *