The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking

system for men’s national association football teams that is published by the website eloratings.net.

It is based on the Elo rating system but includes modifications to take various football-specific

variables into account, like the margin of victory, importance of a match, and home field

advantage. Other implementations of the Elo rating system are possible and there is no

single nor any official Elo ranking for football teams.

Since being developed, the Elo rankings have been found to have the highest predictive

capability for football matches. FIFA’s official rankings, both the FIFA World Rankings for

men and the FIFA Women’s World Rankings are based on a modified version of the Elo formula,

the men’s rankings having switched away from FIFA’s own system for matches played since

June 2018.==Top 100==

The following table shows the top 100 teams in the World Football Elo Ratings as they

were on 9 May 2019, using data from the World Football Elo Ratings web site.Each national

team’s FIFA World Ranking is shown as per the latest release on 4 April 2019.==List of number-one teams==

The following is the list of nations who have achieved the number-one position in the World

Football Elo Ratings since the first international match in 1872:===Ranking by matches played as leader=====All-time team highs and lows==

The following is a list of national football teams ranked by the highest Elo rating they

ever reached. The table also includes the highest ranking as well as the lowest rating

and ranking reached by each nation. The team that has achieved the highest rank in each

confederation is shown in color.==Average ratings==

Time averaged Elo or Elo-like scores are routinely used to compare chess player strengths.====Highest average ratings since 1970====

This table is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score since 1

January 1970, or over approximately the last half century. Before this time intercontinental

play was fairly limited and many nations in Africa, North America, and Asia had played

too few games yet to create a representative Elo score. Only those teams are displayed

that started playing before 1970 and played the entire period without a 5 year or longer

interruption. Some excluded strong national football teams, like East-Germany and Croatia,

appear in the decades tables below.====Averages by decade====

The tables below shows the teams with the best average Elo score per decade (Jan 1 XXX0

– Dec 31 XXX9). Only those teams are displayed that had played before the start of the decade

and played at least ten games in the decade.==Highest rated matches==

A list of the 25 matches between teams with the highest combined Elo ratings (the nations’

points before the matches are given).==Biggest upsets==

This is a list of matches with the biggest point exchange. Since the importance of the

match, the goal differential and the perceived home team advantage are factored in the exchange,

these are not necessarily the most surprising wins as expressed by the difference in Elo

rating.The nations’ points before the matches are given. *The initial ratings may be partially responsible

for the high point exchange. The national teams of China, Egypt, Russia, and South Korea

had played only 18, 3, 2, and 18 international matches before their respective upsets. China

had only yet played against East Asian teams.==Elo Ratings before each World Championship

====History and overview==

The Elo system, developed by Hungarian-American mathematician Árpád Élő, is used by FIDE,

the international chess federation, to rate chess players, and by the European Go Federation,

to rate Go players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football

and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World

Football Elo Ratings web site, currently maintained by Kirill Bulygin. Other implementations of

the Elo rating system are possible but the Runyan system is the best known.

The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match,

an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the

match result. The factors taken into consideration when

calculating a team’s new rating are: The team’s old rating

The considered weight of the tournament The goal difference of the match

The result of the match The expected result of the matchThe different

weights of competitions in descending order are: World Cup Finals

Continental championships finals and Intercontinental tournaments

World Cup and Continental championship qualifiers All other tournaments

Friendly matchesThe ratings consider all official international matches for which results are

available. Ratings tend to converge on a team’s true strength relative to its competitors

after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered

provisional.===Comparison with other systems===

A 2009 comparative study of eight methods found that the implementation of the Elo rating

system described below had the highest predictive capability for football matches, while the

men’s FIFA ranking method (2006–2018 system) performed poorly.The FIFA World Rankings is

the official national teams rating system used by the international governing body of

football. The FIFA Women’s World Rankings system has used a modified version of the

Elo formula since 2003. In June 2018, the FIFA ranking switched to an Elo-based ranking

as well, starting from the current FIFA rating points. The major difference between the World

Football Elo Rating and the new men’s FIFA rating system is that the latter does not

consider goal differential and counts a penalty shoot-out as a win/loss rather than a draw;

thus, a 7:0 blowout is considered equal to a 7:6 penalty shoot-out win (neither method

distinguishes a win in extra time from a win in regular time). The FIFA method is also

less sensitive to the difference in ratings and more sensitive to match status. Finally,

World Football Elo Ratings considers all official international matches for which results are

available, including those involving “unaffiliated” teams that are not a member of FIFA.==Calculation principles==

The ratings are based on the following formulae: R n=R o +

P {\displaystyle R_{n}=R_{o}+P}

where P

=K

G (

W − W e ) {\displaystyle P=KG(W-W_{e})}

Where; “Points Change” is rounded to the nearest

integer before updating the team rating.===Status of match===

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The constant

reflects the importance of a match, which, in turn, is determined entirely by which tournament

the match is in; the weight constant for each major tournament is: The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating will

feature 8 weights, with the knockout stages in the World Cup weighing 12x more than some

friendly matches.===Number of goals===

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index.

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal G

=1 {\displaystyle G=1}

If the game is won by two goals G

=3

2 {\displaystyle G={\frac {3}{2}}}

If the game is won by three or more goals Where N is the goal difference G

=11

+ N 8 {\displaystyle G={\frac {11+N}{8}}}

Table of examples:===Result of match===

W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). This also

holds when a game is won or lost on extra time. If the match is decided on penalties,

however, the result of the game is considered a draw (W=0.5).===Expected result of match===

We is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following

formula: W e=1 10 −

d r / 400 +

1 {\displaystyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{-dr/400}+1}}}

where dr equals the difference in ratings (add 100 points for the home team). So dr

of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower,

and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.

The FIFA adaptation of the Elo rating does not incorporate a home team advantage and

has a larger divisor in the formula (600 vs 400), making the points exchange less sensitive

to the rating difference of two teams.===Examples for clarification===

The same example of a three-team friendly tournament on neutral territory is used as

on the FIFA World Rankings page. Beforehand team A had a rating of 630 points, team B

500 points, and teams C 480 points.The first table shows the points allocations based on

three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker

team B: When the difference in strength between the

two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The next table illustrates

how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly

equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved: Team B drops more points by losing to Team

C, which has shown about the same strength, than by losing to Team A, which has been considerably

better than Team B.==See also==

Statistical association football predictions==Notes